See your real odds of solo mining a Bitcoin block, how long it would take on average, and the payout if you hit one. Enter your hashrate for live numbers at the current network difficulty.
Mining with a pool instead? Use the Pool Mining Calculator
Live
As of July 22, 2026, a 270 TH/s miner has about a 1 in 23,414 chance of solo mining a Bitcoin block on any given day, roughly 1 in 64 per year, at a network difficulty of 127.2T.
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On average, you would find 1 block every ~N/A
On average, you would find 1 block every ~N/A
3.125 BTC (Block Reward + Fees)
Disclaimer: Solo mining is highly probabilistic. These calculations represent the statistical average time to find a block (10 minutes), not a guarantee. Actual results may vary significantly.
Method
Your solo mining odds come from your share of the network. Divide your hashrate by the total network hashrate and you get the fraction of all blocks you are expected to find. Bitcoin mines roughly 144 blocks per day, so multiplying that fraction by 144 gives your daily chance of finding a block. The expected time to find a block is simply the inverse of that daily chance, so half the network hashrate means twice the expected wait.
This is exactly the math the calculator above uses. It divides your hashrate by current network difficulty to turn your probability into a plain "1 in X" figure per day and per year. If you do find a block, you keep the entire block reward plus every transaction fee in it. Because block discovery is random, these numbers are statistical averages, never guarantees.
Reference
Average time to solo mine one Bitcoin block at a network difficulty of 127.2T. These are probabilistic averages, so an actual block can be found much sooner or much later.
| Hashrate | Chance of a block per day | Average time to find a block |
|---|---|---|
| 1 TH/s | 1 in 6,321,680 | ~17,308 years |
| 100 TH/s | 1 in 63,217 | ~173 years |
| 1 PH/s | 1 in 6,322 | ~17 years |
| 10 PH/s | 1 in 632 | ~1.7 years |
Honest answer
There is no amount of hashrate that guarantees a block. Solo mining is probabilistic, not a threshold you cross, so more hashrate only shortens the expected time between blocks. A single machine can win a block on its first day or never win one, and both outcomes are consistent with the odds.
What different hashrates change is the expected wait. As the table shows, 100 TH/s averages well over a century per block at current difficulty, 1 PH/s brings that down to roughly two decades, and 10 PH/s to under two years. Many solo miners run modest hardware knowing a block is a long shot and treat it as a lottery ticket rather than steady income. If you want predictable payouts instead of variance, pool mining is the better fit.
FAQ
As of July 22, 2026, a 270 TH/s miner has about a 1 in 23,414 chance of solo mining a Bitcoin block on any given day, roughly 1 in 64 per year, at a network difficulty of 127.2T. These odds are statistical, based on your share of total network hashrate, so the actual time to find a block can be much shorter or much longer than the average.
Your chance of solo mining a block equals your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate, applied across the roughly 144 blocks Bitcoin finds each day. At 270 TH/s against current difficulty that is about 1 in 23,414 on any given day. Because block discovery is random, solo mining has extremely high variance: you could find a block tomorrow or wait far longer than the statistical average.
Expected time to find a block is the inverse of your daily chance. At 270 TH/s and current network difficulty the average is measured in decades, a 1 PH/s miner averages roughly two decades, and 10 PH/s averages under two years. These are statistical averages, not guarantees, and an individual block can be found at any time.
Divide your hashrate by the total network hashrate to get the fraction of blocks you are expected to find, then multiply by the roughly 144 blocks mined per day to get your daily chance of finding a block. Expected time to find a block is simply the inverse of that daily chance. This is the same math the calculator above uses at current network difficulty.
There is no hashrate that guarantees a block, because solo mining is probabilistic rather than a threshold you cross. More hashrate only shortens the expected time between blocks. At current difficulty, 100 TH/s averages well over a century per block, 1 PH/s roughly two decades, and 10 PH/s under two years. Many solo miners run modest hardware and treat a block as a lottery ticket rather than steady income.
If you solo mine a block you receive the entire reward: the current 3.125 BTC block subsidy plus every transaction fee included in that block. There is no pool to share it with, so the full amount is yours.
Solo mining is worth it only if you accept high variance for the chance at a full block reward. Pool mining pays small, steady amounts proportional to your hashrate, while solo mining pays nothing until you find a block and then pays the whole reward at once. For a deeper comparison, see our guide on solo mining versus pool mining.
