October 2026 Bitcoin Market Report: Price, ETF Flows and Mining
By Josh Heine, Content Strategist at Simple Mining
Published November 2, 2026
Bitcoin closed October 2026 at $77,423.98 on Coinbase, down 7.34% from the October 1 open of $83,556.14. The month ran a 14.6% range between an $87,249.05 high on October 2 and a $76,141.02 low on October 30. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $515.0 million, the Fed held rates, and hashprice averaged 3.7% less than in September. This report covers what moved and what the month paid hosted miners, not what comes next.
On this page · 9 sections
- Bitcoin's Price in October 2026
- Is October Usually a Good Month for Bitcoin?
- Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows in October 2026
- What Moved the Market in October 2026
- Bitcoin Hashrate and Difficulty in October 2026
- Was Bitcoin Mining Profitable in October 2026?
- What to Watch in November 2026
- FAQs About Bitcoin in October 2026
- Run October's Numbers on Your Own Machine
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin closed October 2026 at $77,423.98, down 7.34%, giving back all of September's 6.36% gain.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $515.0 million across 22 trading days as of October 30, 2026, the first net outflow month since June.
- The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28.
- Network difficulty rose 11.76% over three adjustments and the hashrate estimate averaged about 1,024 EH/s.
- Hashprice averaged $37.92 per PH/s per day and margins narrowed on every machine at an all-in hosting fee of $0.065 to $0.08 per kWh.
Bitcoin's Price in October 2026
Bitcoin opened October 2026 at $83,556.14 and closed at $77,423.98 on Coinbase, a loss of 7.34% as of October 31, 2026. The average close was $82,124.89 against $80,471.61 in September, higher because most of the decline came in the last ten days. October closed below September's $78,562.74 open and gave back the full 6.36% gain covered in our September 2026 Bitcoin market report.
| Week | Open | High | Low | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 to 7 | $83,556.14 | $87,249.05 | $82,717.30 | $83,275.06 | -0.34% |
| Oct 8 to 14 | $83,275.05 | $84,261.99 | $80,314.70 | $81,566.29 | -2.05% |
| Oct 15 to 21 | $81,566.28 | $84,856.07 | $79,676.02 | $84,024.67 | +3.01% |
| Oct 22 to 31 | $84,024.67 | $84,305.25 | $76,141.02 | $77,423.98 | -7.86% |
Early October Peaked on Day Two
Bitcoin set the month's high of $87,249.05 on October 2 and its highest close of $86,507.11 on October 4. It fell 2.65% on October 7 to close the first week at $83,275.06, down 0.34%, then fell another 1.90% on October 8. Spot ETFs lost $487.1 million and $244.1 million on those two days.
Mid-October Held Between $79,676 and $84,856
Bitcoin traded between $79,676.02 and $84,856.07 from October 8 to 21. Week two lost 2.05% to $81,566.29. Week three gained 3.01% to $84,024.67, the same week ETFs took in $1,000.8 million.
The Late-October Slide
Bitcoin lost 7.86% from October 22 to 31. It fell 3.23% on October 22, the same day ETFs lost $635.5 million, then held between $79,107.00 and $81,962.00 through October 28. October 29 brought the month's largest one-day drop at 4.27%. The lowest close of $77,180.42 came on October 30, the same day as the month's low and its largest ETF outflow at $643.3 million.
Is October Usually a Good Month for Bitcoin?
October closed higher in 9 of the 11 years from 2015 to 2025 on Coinbase, the record behind the Uptober nickname. Uptober did not arrive in 2026: the 7.34% loss was the weakest October from 2015 through 2026 on both Coinbase and Bitstamp, deeper than 2018's 4.55% drop. 2025 and 2026 are the first back-to-back red Octobers in this record.
| Year | Open | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $237.10 | $314.85 | +32.79% |
| 2016 | $608.99 | $696.90 | +14.44% |
| 2017 | $4,339.01 | $6,445.01 | +48.54% |
| 2018 | $6,605.00 | $6,304.18 | -4.55% |
| 2019 | $8,304.95 | $9,159.48 | +10.29% |
| 2020 | $10,779.63 | $13,804.81 | +28.06% |
| 2021 | $43,828.89 | $61,343.68 | +39.96% |
| 2022 | $19,423.57 | $20,489.94 | +5.49% |
| 2023 | $26,961.00 | $34,656.40 | +28.54% |
| 2024 | $63,305.52 | $70,197.83 | +10.89% |
| 2025 | $114,067.71 | $109,555.27 | -3.96% |
| 2026 | $83,556.14 | $77,423.98 | -7.34% |
Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows in October 2026
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $515.0 million in October 2026 across 22 trading days as of October 30, 2026, with 13 inflow days and 9 outflow days. It was the first net outflow month since June, after inflows of $3.52 billion in August and $2.65 billion in September. The largest inflow day was October 21 at $528.4 million. The largest outflow day was October 30 at $643.3 million, the largest one-day outflow since June 25's $696.3 million, and it ended a four-day inflow streak.
Total net assets fell from $107.98 billion on September 30 to $98.14 billion on October 30, a figure that includes price moves and not just flows. IBIT took in $931.8 million while the other funds lost a combined $1,446.8 million. Follow the daily Bitcoin ETF flows by fund on our tracker, built on TFTC ETF flow data from SoSoValue and Farside.
| Fund | October net flow |
|---|---|
| IBIT (BlackRock) | +$931.8M |
| MSBT (Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust) | +$34.6M |
| EZBC (Franklin) | +$12.0M |
| BTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust) | -$11.2M |
| BITB (Bitwise) | -$84.0M |
| GBTC (Grayscale) | -$184.1M |
| ARKB (ARK 21Shares) | -$444.1M |
| FBTC (Fidelity) | -$754.6M |
| Other funds (BTCO, HODL, BTCW, BRRR) | -$15.4M |
| Week | Trading days | Net ETF flow | Price change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 to 7 | 5 | -$165.6M | -0.34% |
| Oct 8 to 14 | 5 | -$374.2M | -2.05% |
| Oct 15 to 21 | 5 | +$1,000.8M | +3.01% |
| Oct 22 to 31 | 7 | -$976.0M | -7.86% |
What Moved the Market in October 2026
Eight dated events shaped October 2026's news flow: two public miner capital moves, a CPI report, an MSCI index rule, Strategy's preferred buybacks, Strive's 10,227 BTC purchase, a Bitcoin Core release, a Fed hold, and a $6.3 billion security incident at Binance. None is offered as the reason Bitcoin moved.
October 5 and 16: Public Miners Added Power and Debt
TeraWulf said amended agreements with Kentucky Power raised contracted capacity at its Muskie Data Campus from 500 MW to 1 GW, per an 8-K filed October 5. On October 16, Cipher Digital issued $850.0 million of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2032, per its 8-K. Public miners keep putting capital into power and data center capacity.
October 14: September CPI Rose 0.6%
The BLS reported on October 14 that September CPI rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over 12 months, up from 3.4% in August, with gasoline accounting for over half of the monthly increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% and 2.6%. On October 2 the BLS had reported that September payrolls rose by 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%.
October 15: MSCI Finalized Its Non-Operating Company Rule
MSCI said on October 15 that companies it classifies as non-operating will be ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes from the November 2026 Index Review, effective at the close of November 30, with the final list due November 11, per MSCI's announcement.
Strategy Bought Less Bitcoin and More of Its Own Preferred Stock
Strategy bought 851 BTC from October 1 to 25 for $72.3 million, taking its holdings from 847,666 to 848,517 BTC, and bought none from October 19 to 25. It spent $664.1 million over the same weeks repurchasing its STRC preferred stock, per its weekly 8-K filings. On October 28 shareholders approved daily dividends on its preferred stocks, starting with STRC on November 1.
Strive Bought 10,227 BTC
Strive bought 10,227 BTC from October 12 to 23 in two tranches, 4,045 at an average of about $82,803 and 6,182 at about $82,732, taking its holdings from 32,773 to 43,000 BTC, per its 8-K filings. On October 15 it priced a preferred stock offering (SATS) for expected proceeds of about $630 million.
October 28: Bitcoin Core 32.1 Shipped
Bitcoin Core published version 32.1 on October 28. Version 32.0, which our September issue listed for October 10, was tagged but never reached a full release because of last-minute issues. Version 32.1 raises the default peer connection limit from 125 to 200.
October 28: The Fed Held Rates
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 by a 10 to 2 vote, per the Fed's statement. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, and the statement said inflation "remains elevated." The next day the BEA's advance estimate put Q3 GDP growth at a 3.4% annual rate against 2.2% in Q2.
October 30: Binance Reported a $6.3 Billion Security Incident
Binance said on October 30 that its initial investigation pointed to a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop and put the estimated impact at around $6.3 billion, with about $3 billion frozen on-chain. It suspended withdrawals and said it would cover all losses from its SAFU fund and company funds. October 30 was also the month's price low and its largest ETF outflow day.
Bitcoin Hashrate and Difficulty in October 2026
Bitcoin's network difficulty rose 11.76% in October 2026, from 132.76 T to 148.36 T over three adjustments. The first trimmed 0.03% on October 3 at block 969,696 to 132.72 T. The second added 5.92% on October 16 at block 971,712 to reach 140.58 T, and the third added 5.54% on October 29 at block 973,728.
The hashrate estimate from mempool.space averaged about 1,024 EH/s against about 944 EH/s in September, the first monthly average above 1,000 EH/s since February. Miners found 4,673 blocks in October, about 151 per day against the 144 target. Fees totaled 82.88 BTC, or 0.56% of miner rewards against 0.63% in September, at an average of 0.0177 BTC per block. Miner revenue was almost all subsidy at 3.125 BTC per block.
Mining Pool Share in October
Foundry USA found 26.17% of October's blocks, followed by AntPool at 20.59% and F2Pool at 16.52%. The top three pools found 63.28% of all blocks mined in the month, up from 60.31% in September. Our Bitcoin mining pool stats show how hashrate splits across the pools today.
| Pool | October blocks | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Foundry USA | 1,223 | 26.17% |
| AntPool | 962 | 20.59% |
| F2Pool | 772 | 16.52% |
| ViaBTC | 432 | 9.24% |
| SpiderPool | 268 | 5.74% |
| MARA Pool | 228 | 4.88% |
Was Bitcoin Mining Profitable in October 2026?
Bitcoin mining was profitable in October 2026 on every machine in our table, with hashprice averaging $37.92 per PH/s per day, or $0.0379 per TH/s per day. Margins ran from 16% to 61% at an all-in hosting fee of $0.065 to $0.08 per kWh. The average was 3.7% below September's $39.38. Across the two months the average close rose 2.1% while average difficulty rose 6.2%, from 129.24 T to 137.19 T.
Daily hashprice held between $38.83 and $41.19 through October 15, stepped down after the October 16 adjustment, fell again after the October 29 adjustment, and ended at its low of $32.96 on October 31.
Margins narrowed on every machine from September, when the $0.065 margins were 62%, 52%, 46%, and 34% in the same order as the table below. The hosted columns use the all-in hosting fee for Bitcoin miner hosting, $0.065 to $0.08 per kWh, and the cost to mine a Bitcoin column counts the $0.065 fee only and leaves out hardware.
| Machine | TH/s | J/TH | Revenue per day | Margin at $0.065 | Margin at $0.08 | Cost per BTC at $0.065 | Break-even $/kWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antminer S23 Hydro | 563 | 9.5 | $21.14 | 61% | 51% | $32,122 | $0.165 |
| Antminer S21j XP Hydro | 495 | 12.0 | $18.58 | 50% | 39% | $40,572 | $0.130 |
| Antminer S21 XP | 270 | 13.5 | $10.14 | 44% | 31% | $45,643 | $0.116 |
| Antminer S21+ | 235 | 16.4 | $8.82 | 32% | 16% | $55,390 | $0.095 |
At October 31's hashprice of $32.96, each machine earned about 13% less per day than its October average, and the Antminer S21+ at $0.08 per kWh netted about 4%. The US average residential electricity price was 18.16 cents per kWh in August 2026, per the EIA, above every break-even fee in the table. A home miner paying that average would have run every machine at a loss in October.
How We Calculated These Figures
- Hashprice is calculated per day as 86,400 × (3.125 BTC + that day's average fees per block) × 10^12 ÷ (that day's difficulty × 2^32), times the day's Coinbase close, then averaged over the month. It's the same formula our calculators use.
- Revenue applies a 1% pool fee and assumes 100% uptime. Simple Mining's fleet averages 95% uptime, so real results land below the table by that share.
- Cost per BTC is power cost only (kW × 24 × rate ÷ BTC earned per day), the same method as our cost-to-mine page. Hardware, taxes, and pool variance are excluded.
- ETF days follow US market hours while price weeks run on UTC. October 30 was the month's last trading day.
- These are October averages, not a forecast.
- Sources: Coinbase BTC-USD daily candles (UTC), mempool.space block data, TFTC ETF flow data (SoSoValue/Farside), EIA Electric Power Monthly.
What to Watch in November 2026
November's difficulty adjustments fall at block 975,744 around the middle of the month and block 977,760 near its end. Check today's network difficulty for the live figure rather than a percentage printed here.
- The BLS publishes October CPI on November 10.
- MSCI publishes the final list for its non-operating company rule on November 11, effective at the close of November 30.
- The FOMC does not meet in November. Its next meeting is December 8 and 9.
- The next halving is at block 1,050,000, expected around April 2028.
How Has November Gone for Bitcoin Since 2015?
November closed higher in 6 of the 11 years from 2015 to 2025 on Coinbase. The median change was +6.54%, ranging from 2017's +53.65% to 2018's -36.93%. Last November fell 17.51%. That history describes past Novembers and sets no target for this one.
| Year | Open | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $314.84 | $376.86 | +19.70% |
| 2016 | $697.07 | $742.69 | +6.54% |
| 2017 | $6,445.01 | $9,903.00 | +53.65% |
| 2018 | $6,304.18 | $3,976.00 | -36.93% |
| 2019 | $9,159.96 | $7,555.92 | -17.51% |
| 2020 | $13,803.69 | $19,713.94 | +42.82% |
| 2021 | $61,346.17 | $56,987.97 | -7.10% |
| 2022 | $20,489.55 | $17,167.33 | -16.21% |
| 2023 | $34,656.38 | $37,732.27 | +8.88% |
| 2024 | $70,198.02 | $96,465.42 | +37.42% |
| 2025 | $109,555.63 | $90,369.51 | -17.51% |
FAQs About Bitcoin in October 2026
What was Bitcoin's price at the end of October 2026?
Bitcoin closed at $77,423.98 on Coinbase as of October 31, 2026, a loss of 7.34% from the October 1 open of $83,556.14. The lowest close was $77,180.42 on October 30.
What was Bitcoin's highest price in October 2026?
Bitcoin's highest price in October 2026 was $87,249.05 on October 2. The highest close was $86,507.11 on October 4.
How much money flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs in October 2026?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $515.0 million in October 2026 over 22 trading days as of October 30, 2026. IBIT took in $931.8 million while the other funds lost a combined $1,446.8 million, and total net assets stood at $98.14 billion on October 30, a figure that includes price moves.
What was Bitcoin's hashprice in October 2026?
Hashprice averaged $37.92 per PH/s per day in October 2026, or $0.0379 per TH/s per day, 3.7% below September's $39.38. The range ran from $41.19 on October 4 to $32.96 on October 31.
Was Bitcoin mining profitable in October 2026?
Yes. Every machine in our table earned a positive margin at an all-in hosting fee of $0.065 to $0.08 per kWh in October 2026, from 16% on the Antminer S21+ at $0.08 to 61% on the Antminer S23 Hydro at $0.065. All four machines narrowed from their September margins.
Did Bitcoin have an Uptober in 2026?
No. Bitcoin lost 7.34% in October 2026, the weakest October from 2015 through 2026 on both Coinbase and Bitstamp. October had closed higher in 9 of the 11 years from 2015 to 2025, and 2025 and 2026 are the first back-to-back red Octobers in that record.
Run October's Numbers on Your Own Machine
October paid hosted miners a narrower margin than September on every machine, and every machine still finished the month in the black. The two inputs you control are the machine you run and the fee you pay per kWh. Buy Bitcoin miners from our inventory, or start with a 7-day free trial on an Antminer S21+ at 235 TH/s and watch the month's figures land in your own dashboard.