Bear case
$292,000
15% of gold • 1% institutional
Bitcoin research
Valuing Bitcoin as a global monetary alternative
Bitcoin is competing for a place in the world's pools of investment capital, stores of value, corporate cash, and sovereign reserves. This model makes that thesis explicit—and lets you change the assumptions instead of accepting a single headline price.
This interactive model starts with the six valuation categories in ARK Invest's 2030 framework, then applies Simple Mining's more conservative digital-gold assumptions.
Read ARK Big Ideas 2025SMPL-adjusted scenario model
What could one bitcoin be worth in 2030?
Select a starting scenario, then change any assumption. The model divides the implied market value across an estimated 20.5 million bitcoin outstanding in 2030.
Implied 2030 value
$598,000
$12.25T market value20.5M BTC supply
Institutional
$244,000
$5.00T
Digital gold
$298,000
$6.10T
EM safe haven
$17,000
$340B
Nation-state
$18,000
$375B
Corporate
$9,000
$175B
On-chain
$13,000
$264B
Assumptions
Adjust the model
$200T global market portfolio, excluding gold
Capital allocated through institutional portfolios and vehicles such as spot bitcoin ETFs.
$24.4T gold market capitalization
Bitcoin captures part of the store-of-value role currently served by gold.
$68T emerging-market M2 monetary base
Households and businesses use bitcoin as an alternative to currencies exposed to persistent inflation or devaluation.
$15T global treasury reserves, excluding gold
Governments hold bitcoin alongside foreign exchange and gold reserves.
$7T global cash and cash equivalents
Companies replace a portion of balance-sheet cash with bitcoin. This bucket is distinct from operating businesses whose main activity is accumulating bitcoin.
$35B 2024 value base
Value associated with Bitcoin L2s, Lightning, sidechains, restaking, and wrapped bitcoin grows for six years. This is an ecosystem-value estimate, not a percentage of a conventional asset pool.
Scenario analysis is illustrative and not investment advice. The model does not account for liquidity, reflexivity, double counting, taxes, regulation, or the possibility that these markets do not develop as assumed.
Scenario comparison
A lower gold assumption changes the mix more than the thesis
ARK's 2025 model used 20%, 40%, and 60% digital-gold penetration. The core SMPL cases use 15%, 25%, and 40%, while the fourth view keeps 60% as a transparent upside sensitivity. The latest ARK 2026 gold-market estimate of $24.4 trillion is used for every case.
Base case
$598,000
25% of gold • 2.5% institutional
Bull case
$1,267,000
40% of gold • 6.5% institutional
60% gold sensitivity
$1,505,000
60% of gold • 6.5% institutional
BlackRock's monetary-alternative lens
The reserve pool is broader than a gold comparison
U.S. Treasuries remain a central reserve and collateral asset, but they are a liability of the United States. Gold and Bitcoin are different: neither depends on another sovereign's promise to pay. That neutrality is central to the long-term valuation case, even though Bitcoin remains younger and far more volatile.
Read BlackRock's Bitcoin: A Unique DiversifierPurchasing power
What remains of a 1913 dollar?
About three cents of the purchasing power of one January 1913 dollar remained by June 2026, based on the non-seasonally adjusted U.S. CPI.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI for All Urban Consumers via FRED. Values are selected observations and rounded. The line measures consumer-price purchasing power, not an investment return.
Reserve-asset lens
Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin solve different problems
Treasuries provide yield and deep liquidity but are a sovereign liability. Gold and Bitcoin are neutral bearer assets: neither is another issuer's promise to pay.
| Characteristic | U.S. Treasuries | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply | Uncapped | Constrained | Fixed at 21M |
| Volatility | Low | Medium | High |
| Track record | Medium | Long | Short |
| Governance | Centralized | No issuer | Decentralized |
| Cost to move | Low | High | Low |
| Cost to store | Low | High | Low* |
| Whose liability? | U.S. government | Nobody's | Nobody's |
Framework adapted from BlackRock's monetary-alternative analysis, updated with the explicit liability distinction. Descriptions are directional, not scores.
*Bitcoin custody can be inexpensive at the protocol level, but secure institutional custody, governance, and insurance still have real costs.
Corporate treasury today
1.285M BTC
CoinGecko tracked about $81.4B across 179 public companies on Aug. 10, 2026—roughly 1.2% of ARK's $7T corporate-cash TAM. This is a rough ratio, not a clean penetration statistic.
On-chain services clarified
$35B base
This category compounds a 2024 ecosystem-value estimate for L2s, Lightning, sidechains, restaking, and wrapped bitcoin. Even at a 60% CAGR, it is a small part of the total model.
Model denominator
20.5M BTC
ARK uses Bitcoin's deterministic issuance schedule to estimate circulating supply in 2030. This page does not reduce that supply for lost or long-dormant coins.
Methodology and sources
What is borrowed—and what is changed
The formula, six capital-accrual categories, addressable-market definitions, and 20.5 million BTC supply estimate come from ARK's 2030 valuation methodology. The $24.4T gold estimate and lower emerging-market adoption rates follow ARK's 2026 update.
Simple Mining changes the digital-gold rates to 15%, 25%, and 40% for the bear, base, and bull cases. The original 60% rate is retained only as a sensitivity. Every input can be adjusted in the model.
The reserve-asset comparison is adapted from BlackRock's Bitcoin research. CPI purchasing-power data come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. Corporate holdings are a dated CoinGecko snapshot.
Frequently asked questions
Is this a prediction of Bitcoin's 2030 price?
No. It is scenario analysis. Each result follows mechanically from uncertain market-size, adoption, ecosystem-growth, and supply assumptions. Actual outcomes can be materially lower or higher.
Why is the digital-gold assumption lower than ARK's model?
Simple Mining's core scenarios use 15%, 25%, and 40% of gold's market value to make the near-term adoption path more conservative. A separate 60% sensitivity view preserves ARK's original bull assumption.
What are Bitcoin on-chain financial services?
ARK groups value associated with Bitcoin layer 2 networks, Lightning, sidechains, restaking, and wrapped bitcoin. The model compounds a $35 billion 2024 ecosystem-value base rather than applying a penetration rate to a legacy financial market.
How much Bitcoin do public companies hold today?
CoinGecko listed about 1.285 million BTC across 179 public companies when this page was prepared in August 2026. That figure is heavily concentrated in Bitcoin treasury companies and should not be treated as a clean measure of ordinary corporate cash adoption.