Bitcoin Mining Profitability Heatmap
See when mining outperforms buying Bitcoin. Compare machine prices, ownership terms, and electricity rates, then select a cell to understand the numbers behind it.
Looking for a single forecast or a payment plan? Open the Bitcoin Mining Calculator.
When does mining beat buying?
Per-unit scenarios · hypothetical price/rate combinations · no tax benefit
Funding, market inputs & resale rule
Both alternatives receive matching cash at matching dates. No debt, tax benefit, or additional repair budget is included. Power is billed at modeled uptime. Month one uses the starting price and difficulty; subsequent months compound your growth assumptions.
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How to read the profitability heatmap
Start with a machine and your assumptions. Read across a row to compare operating terms, or down a column to see how the purchase price changes the result. Compare the same position across the four electricity panels to isolate the effect of your power rate. Positive dollar returns can still trail buying Bitcoin, so choose the metric that answers your question.
What does a green or red cell mean?
With BTC advantage versus buying selected, a green cell means mining finishes with more BTC-equivalent wealth than buying Bitcoin with the same cash contributions. A red cell means buying finishes ahead. For example, +20% means the mining scenario ends with 20% more value than the buying scenario. It is a modeled return, not a probability of winning. Selecting USD ROI instead compares mining's ending wealth with the total dollars contributed.
How do I read the machine price and term?
Each row is a hypothetical purchase price for one machine. Each column is an operating term in months. The four panels compare electricity rates of $0.065, $0.07, $0.075, and $0.08 per kWh. Select any cell to see the exact machine price, rate, term, and accounting behind that result. These combinations are scenarios, not offers or guaranteed hosting quotes.
How does annual depreciation affect resale value?
The default assumes the machine loses 20% of its original dollar purchase price each year. Estimated resale is therefore 60% after 24 months, 40% after 36 months, 30% after 42 months, and 20% after 48 months. This is a straight-line resale assumption, not a tax deduction or an estimate of a guaranteed sale price. Resale contributes to ending wealth in dollars and is converted to BTC at the scenario's ending Bitcoin price.
Why can Bitcoin price growth change the BTC comparison?
Bitcoin price does not directly change how much BTC the machine produces. It changes how much BTC must be sold to pay dollar expenses and how much BTC the assumed dollar resale value represents. The buying alternative also receives any extra cash needed by mining and purchases BTC at that month's modeled price, after the selected purchase fee.
Why include 42- and 48-month scenarios?
Longer terms show how additional mining time and declining resale value affect the same equipment purchase. Monthly growth compounds throughout the term, so even a modest-looking monthly percentage can imply a large ending Bitcoin price or difficulty. Read the projected ending price alongside the return and try several assumptions. The grid does not assign a likelihood to any scenario.
Does this use the same math as the Bitcoin Mining Calculator?
Yes. The heatmap uses the same forecast and mine-versus-buy calculations, including modeled difficulty changes, pool fees, uptime, transaction-fee revenue, estimated subsidy halvings, and the selected BTC sale strategy. It models an upfront equipment purchase without a tax benefit or financing. Use the main Bitcoin Mining Calculator for a detailed forecast, historical lookback, or payment plan.